I’m ready for my final take . . . It’s conventional wisdom that the late deciders mostly break in one direction. My reasons are anecdotal, but IMO more people who are natural supporters of Trump break for Hillary than people who are natural supporters of Hillary break for Trump, and with all her other advantages, that gets it done . . . And necessarily I'm saying whatever October surprise(s) could still pop up in this crazy cycle will not be momentous enough to change that. GL
That sums the whole thing up excellently, especially the part: "with all her other advantages, that gets it done" as in Manipulation that The Democratic Party
will do, to ensure Victory as that is who and what, they are.
Boiled Down though and despite Dem Machinations, manipulation of The Vote like an inadequate Offense combined with very very bad Play Calling (Decision Making, Judgement) Trump should not be able to overcome:
1.) Insufficient Public Speaking Skill. He simply does not express himself well enough or gracefully enough to be capable of swaying as many Voters needed.
2.) And Mainly: Trump's Judgement is not good enough.
How many times did this man exhibit Horrible Judgement? The most recent of that to light up Hillary via terribly awkward comments at The Alfred E. Smith Dinner? Not the setting for that, he fully knew that but his own Poor Judgement is too powerful of a force for him to overcome.
Like You I don't write-off a possibility of an "October/November Surprise" cuz Hillary is certainly detestable enough for that to be a possibility but Trump Flaws mentioned above lead me to believe that such a thing is very unlikely.
And should No Surprise come? And Trump loses? All on Him, due to his own inadequacies mentioned above.
Reality.